Vanadium market to see structural change?

As 2025 progressed, the vanadium market continue to grapple with weakness as steel production demand struggled to absorb available supply and the broader metals complex remained in the doldrums.

Vanadium pentoxide prices stayed under pressure in most regions, with figures from the second quarter showing US prices near US$9,584, and Chinese prices around US$8,655, reflecting tepid buying activity and ongoing oversupply, even as emerging applications such as VRFBs sustained pockets of interest.

As mentioned, a key factor has been sluggish steel sector demand. Globally, crude steel production has weakened, particularly in China — historically the largest vanadium consumer — slowing vanadium’s traditional core market as rebar and structural steel consumption softened amid broader economic headwinds.

Although new Chinese rebar standards introduced earlier in 2025 mandate higher vanadium intensity in steel, anticipated increases in consumption have only partially materialized, leaving producers competing for limited contracts and putting downward pressure on average ferrovanadium and vanadium pentoxide prices.

At the same time, market participants reported that producers were cutting output and tightening supply in response to persistent low pricing. Several companies in China and the west curtailed production or deferred capital projects, indicating that margins were strained and cost discipline was becoming an industry imperative.

Global vanadium production has been declining since 2021, when the US Geological Survey reported total global output of 105,000 metric tons; that’s compared to 2024’s 100,000 metric tons.

Emerging vanadium demand from energy storage

Despite headwinds, structural changes in vanadium demand were evident in H2 2025.

VRFBs continued to gain momentum as more utility‑scale projects were announced and commissioned. The technology’s appeal lies in its scalability, long cycle life and safety profile compared to conventional lithium‑ion systems; installations in China, Japan and North America point to a slowly growing pipeline of demand outside steel.

Industry analysts have noted that vanadium demand from VRFBs could nearly triple by 2040 as long‑duration storage becomes a more integral part of renewable power grids, even if these applications currently represent a small fraction of total consumption. In China alone, installations of large‑scale VRFB systems were projected to consume tens of thousands of metric tons of vanadium pentoxide equivalent in 2025, offsetting some weakness in steel alloying use.

This bifurcation — weak traditional demand versus nascent battery demand — typified H2, producing a market where prices remained subdued, but underlying interest in new applications suggested a shift in fundamentals.

All eyes on Australia’s vanadium potential

Although US Geological Survey data shows Australia doesn’t currently produce vanadium, the nation holds the largest recorded vanadium reserves at more than 8.5 million metric tons.

Looking to tap this potential, the country has focused its attention on the industrial metal.

In January 2025, Australian Vanadium (ASX:AVL,OTCPL:ATVVF) received environmental approval from Western Australia for the Gabanintha vanadium project. The approval, granted by Minister for Environment Reece Whitby under section 45 of the Environmental Protection Act 1986 (WA), cleared the way for construction and production.

Shortly afterwards, the company’s namesake Australian Vanadium project, located in Western Australia’s Murchison province, earned a green energy major project designation.

The Queensland government has also invested in expanding refinement and processing capacity. Last May, construction began at Queensland’s first resources common user facility at the Cleveland Bay Industrial Park in Townsville.

The facility is designed to support the development, extraction and production of critical minerals, enabling the creation of mineral samples at scale and serving as a testing hub for commercializing production processes.

The government has identified vanadium as the initial focus, highlighting its key role in renewable energy applications.

In November, Western Australia launched a AU$150 million vanadium battery energy storage system project, aiming to make the state a leader in renewable energy and energy storage.

The 50 megawatt/500 megawatt-hour flow battery will use locally sourced and processed vanadium, and is expected to be the largest of its kind in Australia, supporting advanced manufacturing and a domestic supply chain.

Growing energy storage demand meets tightening supply

Looking ahead, analysts forecast that vanadium dynamics will begin to tilt in favor of tighter supply and strengthened pricing, though the timing and pace remain contingent on several variables.

A combination of reduced output and rising consumption — particularly from VRFBs — is expected to push the market toward a deficit by late 2026, encouraging a gradual recovery in vanadium prices.

Central to that shift is the energy transition. Demand for vanadium in long‑duration energy storage is projected to rise sharply as utilities and grid operators seek cost‑effective solutions to buffer renewables and stabilize electricity systems.

The vanadium market’s long‑term promise is underpinned by projections that VRFB deployment could grow at double‑digit rates, even as the bulk of demand remains tied to steel alloying.

On the supply side, a cautionary mood among producers — reflected in delayed project developments and tighter output discipline — may limit new material flowing onto the market in 2026.

With prices remaining below historical averages, many potential expansions are unbankable in the current price environment, meaning that new supply additions are likely to be limited absent a sustained price uptick.

“Vanadium market prices are likely to rise from late 2026, supported by tightening supply and growing demand from VRFBs. With weak prices in 2024 and 2025, driven by sluggish steel demand, vanadium producers have curbed output,” a CRU report published this past December notes.

Analysts at CRU project a late-year rebound, but caution that demand could triple by 2040 far outpacing production.

“Meanwhile VRFB demand is accelerating, evidenced by robust vanadium electrolyte project pipeline,” the firm’s report continues. “Rising demand will quickly run into depressed production, where prices will need to increase to support higher utilisation rates in mid-to late 2026.”

US retirement system at inflection point

The executives interviewed, who are responsible for roughly US$18 trillion in assets, described legacy infrastructure as fragmented, inefficient and ill-suited to modern employment patterns and participant expectations.

“We expected (a) debate about the pace of change or which innovations to prioritize. Instead, we heard near-universal agreement that … incremental improvements won’t be enough,’ he continued.

“One participant told us the legacy infrastructure needs to be burned down and built up from scratch. When industry leaders … are that candid about structural deficiencies, it signals we’ve reached a genuine inflection point.”

Crossley explained that there are three forces driving urgency:

• Traditional safety nets are eroding as Social Security faces funding pressure and defined benefit pensions fall. The expert told INN that defined benefit pensions have shrunk from 68 percent of retirement assets in the mid-1970s to around 28 percent today.

• Job tenure has shortened dramatically, with Gen Z averaging less than three years per role versus nearly a decade for older cohorts, breaking systems built around long-term work at a single entity.

• Neobrokers and fintech platforms are increasing the competitive pressure on established companies, attracting younger investors and entering the retirement product market.

How blockchain solves for operational efficiency

While blockchain adoption in retail investment remains gradual, enterprise-level integrations have advanced steadily in recent years. Franklin Templeton itself has issued tokenized money market funds and piloted on-chain share registries.

“Intraday yield enables proportional calculation and distribution of yield, down to the second, when a tokenized security is transferred from one party to another — only made possible by blockchain innovation.”

The firm’s latest research suggests that the same efficiencies could underpin large-scale retirement solutions.

“The core problem in the industry is fragmentation,” Crossley said.

“Retirement data sits in silos across record keepers, plan sponsors, asset managers and benefits administrators, all running separate ledgers that require constant reconciliation,’ he continued, noting that blockchain provides a solution by creating a single shared record that every authorized participant can access simultaneously.

“Beyond that, tokenization allows us to embed rules directly into assets,” Crossley added. “A participant’s 401(k) contribution, their benefits elections (and) their employer match formula can all become programmable contracts that execute automatically. That’s not something a conventional database upgrade can replicate.”

Crossley pointed out that the bulk of retirement administration remains mired in costly, duplicative processes that fail to add value, with record keepers spending about US$12 billion a year servicing plans.

“Blockchain collapses that into a single shared record. When a contribution post or a benefits claim (is processed), every authorized party sees identical data simultaneously,’ he emphasized.

“Smart contracts take it further by automating routine administration. A participant’s contribution rate, investment election and match formula can be encoded into a self-executing contract. The blockchain monitors incoming payroll data and triggers the appropriate actions without manual intervention.”

From account to wallet

As regulatory frameworks mature and data security protocols strengthen, institutional players appear more willing to explore blockchain-based modernization at a broader scale.

If Franklin Templeton’s vision takes hold, the shift from “account to wallet” could mark one of the biggest operational revolutions in retirement management since the 401(k) was introduced nearly half a century ago.

“A wallet-based model consolidates that view. Your retirement contributions, benefits elections and employer match terms become tokens held in a single digital wallet that you control and carry with you across jobs.’

He noted that custodians and asset managers would have to rethink delivery.

‘Instead of being product manufacturers pushing funds into accounts, they become service providers operating within a networked ecosystem where the participant’s wallet is the central hub,’ Crossley said.

Barriers, challenges and regulatory engagement

Despite the promise, Crossley acknowledged that implementation roadblocks still lay ahead.

“Culture may be the steepest climb. The retirement industry has been conditioned by litigation risk to avoid anything nonstandard. Fiduciaries default to the cheapest, most common options because doing something different invites lawsuits. That mindset has to shift before any technology gains traction,’ he said.

“On the technical side, many record keepers still operate on mainframe systems built decades ago. Extracting and standardizing that data for migration is a massive undertaking,’ Crossley continued. In his view, regulatory clarity would be helpful in speeding up adoption, but internal barriers are hindering established franchies.

Franklin Templeton actively engages with regulators worldwide through sandboxes, hearings and white papers to align blockchain innovations with fiduciary standards while fostering investor protection and market growth.

“Our goal is to help build a regulatory environment where new technologies can thrive safely and transparently, unlocking the benefits of blockchain for institutions and individuals alike,’ he said.

‘By working together, we’re not just advancing our own capabilities; we’re helping to set the standard for a more open, resilient and trustworthy financial ecosystem,’ Crossley added. “We believe that the best regulatory frameworks don’t just safeguard investors; they also create the conditions for growth, experimentation and broader participation.”

The future of retirement systems

Crossley envisions a future where tokenized retirement systems operate seamlessly behind the scenes.

“Imagine a system where your retirement plan follows you across every job without paperwork, where your benefits selections automatically adjust when your circumstances change and where an AI-powered assistant actively optimizes your contributions, benefits usage and purchasing power in real time,’ he said.

“Tokenization makes that possible because it transforms static account records into programmable assets. Your 401(k) allocation, your HSA and your employer match formula all become smart contracts that execute automatically based on your preferences and life events. The end state is a retirement system that works continuously in the background rather than something you revisit once a year during open enrollment.”

Franklin Templeton sees gradual progress leading to meaningful adoption within three to five years.

He also noted that some forward-leaning providers are already testing wallet-based delivery for select participant groups. For example, Fidelity Investments offers Bitcoin exposure in 401(k)s via its digital assets account with up to 20 percent allocation and risk controls, while JPMorgan Chase’s (NYSE:JPM) Kinexys supports tokenized fund shares for automated rebalancing and collateral on permissioned networks. US provider ForUsAll enables up to 5 percent crypto self-directed windows via Coinbase Institutional in its Alt401(k) plans for small businesses.

“The question isn’t whether this shift happens,” said Crossley. ‘But whether incumbent players lead it or find themselves responding to competitors who moved first.”

1. Hecla Mining Company (NYSE:HL)

Market cap: US$16.91 billion

Hecla Mining operates the Greens Creek and Lucky Friday silver mines in Alaska and Idaho. Greens Creek is the United State’s largest silver mine. In addition to being a major silver miner in the US, Hecla also has mines in Canada, with the Keno Hill silver operation in the Yukon Territory and Casa Berardi gold-silver mine in Québec. Additionally, Hecla has a variety of exploration projects across North America.

In its 2024 results, Hecla reported silver reserves of 240 million ounces, silver production of 16.2 million ounces and a record US$929.9 million in total sales. The majority of Hecla’s 2024 silver production was derived from its Greens Creek and Lucky Friday mines, which produced 8.48 and 4.89 million ounces respectively.

Hecla’s 2025 production guidance stands at 16.2 million to 17 million ounces, with the vast majority expected to come from its US operations. In Q3 2025, the company produced 4.59 million ounces of silver, and 13.22 million ounces through the first nine months of the year.

‘Our third quarter results represent a defining moment for Hecla, with record-breaking performance across a number of key financial metrics,’ Rob Krcmarov, Hecla’s president and CEO, said in its Q3 results. ‘Greens Creek continues to exceed expectations, Keno Hill has delivered three consecutive quarters of profitability under our ownership, Lucky Friday maintained consistent production while advancing the surface cooling project, and Casa Berardi’s cost trajectory is improving.’

2. Coeur Mining (NYSE:CDE)

Market cap: US$13.58 billion

Coeur Mining describes itself as a growing precious metals producer with four producing mines in the Americas. Its major silver-producing operation in the US is the Rochester silver-gold mine in Nevada. Its other US mines are the Kensington gold mine in Alaska and Wharf gold mine in South Dakota, with Wharf also producing silver as a by-product.

In Mexico, Couer owns the Palmarejo silver-gold complex in Chihuahua and the Las Chispas silver-gold mine in Sonora. Coeur added Las Chispas to its portfolio when it acquired SilverCrest in early 2025. Coeur is also advancing work at its Silvertip silver-zinc-lead project in British Columbia, Canada.

For 2024, Rochester’s silver production totaled 4.38 million ounces, falling slightly shy of its 2024 guidance of 4.8 million to 6.6 million ounces, while Coeur’s full silver production across its operations totaled 11.4 million ounces.

As of Q3 2025, Coeur’s 2025 silver production guidance stood at 18.1 million ounces, with Rochester expected to produce 6 million to 6.7 million ounces of silver. In the first nine months of the year, Coeur produced 13.2 million ounces of silver across its operations, with Rochester accounting for 4.38 million ounces.

“Coeur delivered another quarter of record financial results, driven by higher prices, balanced contributions from all five of our North American gold and silver operations along with overall strong cost control,” President and CEO Mitchell J. Krebs said in the release. “Las Chispas experienced a particularly strong quarter, with the team continuing to exceed expectations in just its second full quarter of operations with the Company.”

3. Americas Gold and Silver (NYSEAMERICAN:USAS)

Market cap: C$1.69 billion

Americas Gold and Silver is mining for silver in the US and Mexico. The company has two producing assets: the Galena Complex in Idaho, which produces silver, copper and antimony, and the Cosalá operation in Mexico. It also owns the Relief Canyon mine in Nevada, currently on care and maintenance, and the newly acquired, past-producing Crescent silver mine, located 9 miles from Galena in Idaho.

In December 2024, the company consolidated full ownership of Galena when it acquired the outstanding 40 percent interest from an affiliate of Eric Sprott and Paul Andre Huet. As part of the deal, Sprott acquired a significant interest in the company, and Huet was appointed its CEO and Chairman. Americas stated that its benefits from 100 percent ownership in the property include streamlined decision making and a focused vision for Galena.

The company has been working on expansion efforts at Galena since early 2024. In its 2024 results, Americas Gold and Silver reported attributable silver production from Galena of approximately 1.5 million ounces compared to 1.6 million ounces the previous year.

In September 2025, Americas completed the first upgrade on Galena’s No 3 shaft ahead of schedule, improving productivity. In its Q3 results, the company reported 2025 year-to-date production of 1.9 million ounces of silver.

In December, the company completed the acquisition of the past-producing Crescent silver mine near Galena. The historic resource at the site demonstrates mineralization similar to that at Galena, with the potential to add 1.4 million to 1.6 million ounces of silver annually.

In an operational update in January 2026, the company said development of Crescent was progressing rapidly and it was aiming for a mid-2026 restart of operations.

“This rapid execution is an excellent start to our plan to establish best-in-class operations at Crescent. We’re poised to unlock multiple synergies with our neighbouring Galena Complex from procurement savings and equipment sharing to G&A efficiencies and spare processing capacity,’ Chairman and CEO Huet stated.

Geopolitics, trade friction and the push to rewire rare earths supply chains

Rising geopolitical tensions between China, the US and Europe are accelerating changes in global rare earths trade flows, with long-term implications for supply security as 2026 approaches.

“Whether rare earths are truly ‘critical’ for individual nations is almost beside the point,” the expert said. “We seem to have decided, politically, to weaken trade between major powers. If we’re going to do that with China, we need to be prepared for continued supply instability in rare earths.”

That instability leaves western economies with two broad options: rebuild China’s vertically integrated rare earths supply chain at home — at a higher cost — or reduce dependence on rare earths altogether via new technologies.

“Either we recreate the Chinese supply chain in miniature and accept higher prices, or we innovate our way out of the problem,” Hykawy said. “That question is still very much open.”

Technological change is already offering potential pathways. Hykawy pointed to advances in electric motor design, including axial flux motors developed by YASA, a subsidiary of Mercedes-Benz Group (ETR:MBG,OTCPL:MBGAF).

Unlike conventional cylindrical electric vehicle motors that rely heavily on rare earth permanent magnets, axial flux designs use magnets more efficiently and may, in some applications, replace them with electromagnets.

“These motors require better materials and more precise machining, but they use magnets far more efficiently,” he said. “In some cases, they may even eliminate the need for rare earth magnets altogether.”

The example highlights how innovation could soften demand growth for certain rare earths over time, though cost and scalability remain barriers. At the same time, Hykawy argued that western efforts to localize rare earths mining, processing and magnet manufacturing are realistic, but will take patience.

“We are only at the beginning of building a rare earth supply chain entirely outside of China,” he said. “There is absolutely nothing that prevents us from doing it except time and money.”

Contrary to popular belief, Hykawy said rare earths mining is not more environmentally damaging than other forms of mining, noting that deposits — including ionic clays rich in heavy rare earths — exist well beyond China’s borders.

“The real constraint is people,” he said. “We need experienced operators, engineers and processors, and there is no shortcut for the time it takes to build that expertise.”

As trade frictions persist, Hykawy expects supply diversification to continue, but warned that near-term volatility is likely to remain a defining feature of the rare earths market through 2026.

1. InPlay Oil (TSX:IPO)

Dividend yield: 12.4 percent
Debt-to-equity ratio: 0.61
Market cap: C$343.25 million

InPlay Oil is an oil and natural gas company with operations concentrated in West Central Alberta, Canada.

In its financial and operating highlights for its Q3 period ending September 30, 2025, the company reported that its average production for the quarter was above expectations at 18,970 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), more than double its average output of 8,206 boe/d in the third quarter of the previous year.

InPlay will pay a monthly dividend of C$0.09 per share on January 30, 2026, to shareholders of record as of January 15.

2. Meren Energy (TSX:MER)

Dividend yield: 11.3 percent
Debt-to-equity ratio: 0.41
Market cap: C$1.21 billion

Meren Energy is an full-cycle exploration and production oil and gas company with offshore assets in Nigeria, Namibia, South Africa and Equatorial Guinea. This includes interests in producing and development assets in Nigeria operated by oil majors.

For the period ending September 30, 2025, Meren reported average daily working interest and entitlement production of 31,100 boe/d and 35,600 boe/d respectively, which the company said was in line with its expectations.

Meren Energy paid a quarterly dividend of US$0.0371 per share on December 9, 2025, to shareholders of record at the close of business on November 21, 2025.

3. Alvopetro Energy (TSXV:ALV)

Dividend yield: 8.63 percent
Debt-to-equity ratio: 0.08
Market cap: C$236.92 million

Alvopetro Energy is an oil and gas exploration and production company with assets in Brazil and Canada.

In its financial and operating highlights for the period ending September 30, 2025, the company reported average daily sales of 2,343 boe/d. Its sales were up 11 percent from Q3 2024 and down 4 percent from Q2 2025.

Alvopetro Energy paid a base quarterly dividend of US$0.10 per common share and a special dividend of US$0.02 per common share on January 15, 2026, to shareholders of record at the close of business on December 31, 2025.

4. Parex Resources (TSX:PXT)

Dividend yield: 8.63 percent
Debt-to-equity ratio: 0.01
Market cap: C$1.72 billion

Parex Resources is the largest independent oil and gas exploration and production company in Colombia.

For the period ending September 30, 2025, Parex reported average oil and natural gas production of 43,953 boe/d, up 3 percent compared to the prior quarter and down 7.6 percent year-over-year. Production rose further in October, averaging 49,300 boe/d, which the company said supports it reaching its full year 2025 average production guidance of 43,000 to 47,000 boe/d.

Parex paid a quarterly dividend of C$0.385 per share on December 15, 2025, to shareholders of record on December 8, 2025.

5. Cardinal Energy (TSX:CJ)

Dividend yield: 8.54 percent
Debt-to-equity ratio: 0.24
Market cap: C$1.36 billion

Last on this list of top Canadian oil and gas dividend stocks is Cardinal Energy is an oil-focused company with operations centered on low-decline light, medium and heavy oil in Alberta and Saskatchewan, Canada. It also produces liquid and conventional natural gas.

Cardinal reported that its Q3 2025 production totaled 20,772 boe/d, down 2 percent from the same quarter in the previous year as the company continued to focus its capital on completing the Reford thermal project. The project has since entered production.

Cardinal Energy will pay a monthly dividend of C$0.06 per share on February 17, 2026, to shareholders of record on January 30, 2026.