Bullet briefing — Platinum beats gold, copper hits new record

Platinum price on the move

I’d be remiss if I didn’t also take a moment to mention platinum.

While gold and silver have been making headlines, platinum’s 2025 rise has been quiet, but significant — it’s up over 100 percent year-to-date and nearly hit US$1,980 per ounce this week.

Platinum is somewhat similar to silver in that they both have precious and industrial sides, and they’ve both seen persistent deficits in recent years.

Platinum’s deficit has definitely helped it rise this year, but looking forward to next year the World Platinum Investment Council is expecting a balanced market. When I saw that, I wondered if that would mean lower prices in 2026. But that may not necessarily be the case.

Edward Sterck said there are a couple of nuances in the council’s outlook — for example, it’s anticipating profit taking from exchange-traded funds, but if that doesn’t happen, then the platinum deficit may persist. He also noted that balance in 2026 wouldn’t erase years of deficits:

‘A balanced market doesn’t solve for the fact we’ve had three years of deficits. It doesn’t in any way, I suppose, rebuild aboveground stocks. And it’s the shortage of aboveground stocks that seems to be one of the major catalysts behind this price action and behind the market tightness.’

Copper price hits new high

It’s not only precious metals that have been hitting new highs this year.

The price of copper has been climbing as well, hitting a new all-time high of close to US$12,000 per metric ton last week on the London Metal Exchange.

It’s pulled back slightly since then, but market watchers agree the copper outlook remains strong as rising demand meets constrained supply. In fact, I’ve been asking experts what they think the top-performing asset of next year will be, and copper has been a popular pick.

Lobo Tiggre of IndependentSpeculator.com chose the base metal as his highest-confidence trade of 2025, and he said he’s sticking with it next year.

Here’s what he had to say about copper:

‘Top pick for 2026 is copper. Similar reasons to 2025 —the copper price has been kicked around, up and down by what I think of as sort of extraneous issues. But the fundamentals mean the demand scenario just looks phenomenal, and the supply has been really constrained.’

This week’s tech sector performance

US stocks advanced this week amid key economic data releases, with tech leading gains after Micron Technology’s (NASDAQ:MU) results release and easing artificial intelligence (AI) sector pressures.

The S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) rose 0.02 percent on the week, closing Friday (December 19) at 6,834.5.

However, tech stock losses earlier in the week kept gains in check. The Nasdaq Composite (INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC) lost 0.1 percent for the week to close at 23,307.62 on Friday.

3 tech stocks moving markets this week

1. Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU)

Micron Technology reported earnings for its first fiscal quarter of 2026 on Thursday (December 18), showing strong results driven by surging high-bandwidth memory sales for AI data centers

Revenue reached US$13.64 billion, up 93 percent from last year and higher than the company’s September revenue projection of US$12.8 billion. Adjusted earnings per share were US$4.78, beating estimates of US$3.95. The company generated strong free cashflow and declared a US$0.115 per share dividend payable on January 14, 2026.

Looking ahead, Micron adjusted its profit guidance for the upcoming quarter to US$8.42 per share, higher than Wall Street’s US$4.78 consensus, due to continued AI boom momentum.

Investors responded to the results by sending Micron shares up 10 percent post-earnings. Momentum carried into Friday’s trading session, spilling over into other tech stocks, which have come under pressure in recent weeks over lofty valuations and funding concerns. The company ended the week 0.58 percent higher.

2. Trump Media & Technology Group (NASDAQ:DJT)

Trump Media & Technology Group rose nearly 30 percent before Thursday’s opening bell after the company announced plans to merge with fusion power company TAE Technologies.

The all-stock deal is reportedly valued at more than US$6 billion. Devin Nunes, chair and chief executive of Trump Media, and Dr. Michl Binderbauer, CEO and director at TAE, are set to serve as co-CEOs.

TAE is a private company with backing from Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) and other companies. The merger is slated to create one of the first publicly traded nuclear fusion companies. “We’re taking a big step forward toward a revolutionary technology that will cement America’s global energy dominance for generations,“ Nunes said.

Shares of Trump Media closed the week with a gain of 39.53 percent.

3. Oracle (NYSE:ORCL)

Oracle shares dropped 5.4 percent on Wednesday (December 17) after a Financial Times report claimed data center investor Blue Owl Capital pulled out of a US$10 billion financing round for one of the AI data centers Oracle is constructing for OpenAI in Michigan. Talks reportedly stalled due to concerns over project delays, tougher debt terms, Oracle’s rising debt load and lease arrangements, per sources cited by the news outlet.

Oracle disputed the report’s implications, stating that Michigan negotiations are “on schedule” without Blue Owl.

The company said its project development partner, Related Digital, has chosen “the best equity partner from a competitive group of options, which in this instance was not Blue Owl.” Still, the company finished the week with its share price ahead by 2.18 percent as tech stocks staged an end-of-year comeback.

Oracle, Micron Technology and Trump Media performance, December 15 to 19, 2025.

Chart via Google Finance.

Top tech news of the week

Tech ETF performance

Tech exchange-traded funds (ETFs) track baskets of major tech stocks, meaning their performance helps investors gauge the overall performance of the niches they cover.

This week, the iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SOXX) declined by 0.94 percent, while the Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SOXQ) saw a loss of 0.66 percent.

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SMH) also decreased by 0.61 percent.

Tech news to watch next week

Markets will be closed mid-week next week, with low trading volumes likely keeping movement calm.

Watch for year-end selling in tech stocks, a potential rotation into safer sectors and light data like factory orders and home sales reports. Any comments on future interest rates could move markets somehwat, but expect mostly flat trading unless big news like policy changes breaks through.

Platinum demand depends on auto sector

As for China, data from the China Passenger Car Association shows retail auto sales fell by 8.1 percent in November and dropped by 1.1 percent month over month; however, exports rose 52 percent to a record high of 601,000 units.

“New-energy vehicle sales grew only 4.2 percent year over year, undershooting expectations and reinforcing the theme that the domestic EV momentum is cooling faster than previously assumed,” said Hasan.’The export boom, however, keeps Chinese production elevated and sustains global palladium demand through foreign-market supply chains.”

The global slowdown in EV sales is also beneficial to palladium’s demand prospects. Reuters reported that global EV sales rose by just 6 percent in November on flat sales out of China and a 42 percent drop in North America after the Trump Administration ended the EV tax credit scheme. That’s the slowest growth rate since February of 2024.

“Slower electrification limits the speed of substitution away from palladium-heavy combustionengines, extending the life cycle of auto catalyst demand at a time when supply growth remainsan open question,” Hasn stated.

Looking into 2026, S&P Global sees the outlook for light-vehicle production being dependent on changing US trade policies and emissions standards. Consumer demand could be weighed down by the extra costs brought about by tariffs.

“The broader pattern suggests flattish global production trends for 2026, a scenario that keeps palladium demand growth steady but not spectacular,” Hasn explained.

Another factor that may impact palladium demand in the coming year is the premium reversal and the potential for auto makers to swap platinum for palladium in autocatalysts. Historically, for the most part palladium has traded at a premium to platinum; however, this trend reversed in late 2025 as the platinum market is facing a large supply deficit for the year.

In its September 2025 market update, the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) reported at that time that platinum prices over the preceding twelve months were trading at an average premium of US$59 per ounce to palladium prices. The WPIC said it “expects reverse substitution (i.e. palladium for platinum) to reach 250 koz by 2029f. With palladium now benefitting from reverse substitution, palladium will also relatively benefit (versus platinum) from China 7 emission legislation which we have added into our forecasts from 2028f.”

As of December 17, platinum is trading at a premium of more than US$250 compared to palladium.

Palladium supply facing challenges

Palladium’s price peaks in 2025 are not all related to demand. Production and logistics challenges are also driving prices for the metal. The two geographic regions to watch for supply side trends are Russia and South Africa, by far the two biggest palladium producing countries. Together, they account for more than three-quarters of global palladium production. In Russia, palladium is mainly a by-product of nickel and copper mining, whereas in South Africa the metal is mined as a by-product or co-product of platinum.

In South Africa, platinum and palladium mining operations have been plagued by heavy rain and flooding in 2025. The nation’s mining industry has already been suffering under an energy crisis marked by frequent power outages. To further compound the supply problem, maturing deposits are becoming more expensive to mine and a lack of significant capital investment has led to a dearth of new projects.

In Russia, palladium output is traditionally dependent upon the economic and operational viability of its nickel mines. Since the country’s invasion of Ukraine, logistical challenges have erupted all along the palladium supply chain from mining to export as sanctions and trade restrictions have tightened. This includes the removal of Russian refiners from the London Platinum and Palladium Market ‘Good Delivery Lists’.

Another supply side challenge came in mid-2025 when American palladium producer Sibanye-Stillwater (NYSE:SBSW) headed up a petition requesting that the US International Trade Commission (ITC) investigate anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Russian unwrought palladium. Russian palladium represents about 40 percent of US imports of the metal.

The ITC found that dumped and subsidized Russian palladium imports do pose a threat to the US palladium industry. The Department of Commerce is now conducting a full investigation into the dumping margins and subsidies of Russian unwrought palladium. A determination is expected in January 2026, followed by the final phase of the ITC investigation to be completed in May 2026.

Sterck said the outcome could have an impact on the substitution of platinum for palladium in catalytic converters. “I think going into next year, we should get greater clarity on these investigations, and it’s certainly something that we’ll be watching in terms of trying to inform our estimates for 2026 as a whole,” he added.

In its September 20205 market update, the WPIC projected that the palladium market will likely post supply deficits for 2025 and 2026 before moving into a surplus. That’s with palladium mine supply forecast to decline by 1.1 percent CAGR between 2024 and 2029.

“Notably, the forecast of palladium going into surplus is entirely contingent on recycling supply growth. If this does not materialise then palladium could remain in a deficit for the foreseeable future, which could materially alter palladium value expectations,” stated the report.

Palladium price forecast for 2026

The palladium market is notoriously volatile and highly sensitive to economic swings and supply disruptions. All of this makes forecasting palladium prices challenging.

Precious metals industry service provider Heraeus Precious Metals’ 2026 palladium price forecast is representative of the uncertainty prevalent in this segment of the market. The firm is projecting that prices for the metal will trade in a range of US$950 to US$1,500 next year.

Palladium may face a widening surplus as battery electric vehicles gain market share,” said Henrik Marx, Head of Trading at Heraeus Precious Metals. This would likely place downward pressure on palladium price. However, the firm’s report points out that the metal’s price may receive a boost from a rally in platinum prices.

New York-based precious metals dealer Bullion Exchanges has a base case of US$1,300 to US$1,600 per ounce for palladium in 2026. If EV adoption grows faster than expected, its bearish case for the metal comes in at US$1,100 per ounce. If the supply deficit deepens and Russian palladium faces further sanctions, the firm sees a more bullish case for palladium to soar above US$1,800 per ounce.

Automotive sector still leads for platinum demand

The automotive industry is easily the largest demand sector for platinum.

Both platinum and palladium can be used in catalytic converters, which help eliminate toxic emissions from vehicle tailpipe gases. As their prices fluctuate, platinum and palladium tend to be swapped.

Even so, in its latest platinum quarterly, released on November 19 and prepared by Metals Focus, the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) is reporting that demand for platinum from the auto sector will drop 3 percent in 2025 to 3.02 million ounces, followed by another 3 percent decline to 2.915 million ounces of the metal in 2026.

This is due in large part to the transition from internal combustion engines to electric vehicles (EVs).

That said, the clean energy transition is happening so slowly that its impact on the platinum market is fairly subdued.

Hydrogen tech a long-term demand growth driver

Platinum is also a necessary material in the production of hydrogen electrolysis and fuel-cell technologies.

“Hybrid vehicles and hydrogen-powered vehicles still require platinum for exhaust treatment systems or fuel cells. WPIC forecasts that by 2029, fuel-cell EVs will account for only about 3 percent of automotive platinum demand; however, this is still considered a positive contribution,” Tran explained via email.

Platinum is a primary catalyst used in proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cells and PEM electrolyzers. Both are electrochemical devices that are used for clean energy conversion, but fuel cells use hydrogen to generate electricity, while electrolyzers use electricity to produce hydrogen.

Both PEM fuel cells and electrolyzers “are key technologies in the clean-energy strategies of the United States, Europe, and China. According to estimates from WPIC and the (International Energy Agency), if hydrogen projects progress on schedule, global electrolyser capacity could expand significantly in the second half of this decade, driving platinum demand related to hydrogen higher than current levels,” wrote Tran.

Platinum shines like gold for investors

Even as total demand for platinum is projected to fall by 5 percent to 7.82 million ounces in 2025, according to the WPIC, investment demand for platinum is expected to be up by 6 percent to 742,000 ounces.

Platinum is benefiting from the general trend toward safe-haven investment in precious metals as the Fed reverses its course monetary policy and moves toward lower interest rates.

With the gold price at record highs, investors are seeking out cheaper alternatives translating into rising inflows into platinum exchange-traded funds, and increased purchasing of physical bars and coins.

‘In terms of physical bar and coin demand, this year has been very much characterized by significant strength and demand out of China. So the Chinese market has just been growing basically from more or less zero back in 2019 to becoming the biggest market in the world for platinum investments products,’ said Sterck. ‘I think that momentum is likely to continue, but maybe not at quite the same sort of pace going into 2026.’

However, for 2026, the WPIC sees investment demand falling by 52 percent to 358,000 ounces, dampened by potential profit taking on the part of platinum exchange-traded fund (ETF) holders. Meanwhile, platinum bar and coin demand is expected to remain elevated, posting gains of 37 percent to 462,000 ounces.

Overall, the WPIC is forecasting total platinum demand to drop another 6 percent to 7.385 million ounces in 2026. This is still just slightly below the ten-year average, demonstrating the robust nature of demand for the metal.

Platinum miners still facing obstacles

More than 70 percent of the world’s total platinum mine supply comes from South Africa. The top platinum-mining countries are Zimbabwe (11 percent) and Russia (10 percent). Canada and the US round out the top five, but even together these two North American countries represent a mere 4 percent of global platinum production.

“This concentration makes the platinum market more vulnerable to mining disruptions or geopolitical risks in these countries,” stated Tran. “Throughout most of 2025, the supply and demand landscape for platinum has shifted significantly. Years of low prices placed considerable pressure on the mining sector, forcing companies to cut output, delay investments, or shut down operations with low profit margins. This led to a tightening of supply just as inventories declined after nearly three consecutive years of being drawn down by automakers to cover shortages.”

Refined production is expected to contract by 5 percent this year, at 5.51 million ounces compared to 5.77 million ounces in 2024. Platinum recycling will result in 1.619 million ounces of new supply in 2025, up 7 percent.

As such, platinum supply is forecast to decrease by 2 percent in 2025. According to the WPIC, it will come in at 7.404 million ounces. The organization notes that the resulting demand/supply imbalance is predicted to reach 692,000 ounces in 2025, representing a supply deficit for the third straight year.

“Demand for the metals constantly surpasses the supply. The situation becomes worse due to the tariffs, sanctions and supply disruptions,” said Murillo. While US President Donald Trump’s tariffs present a new wild card for many commodities markets, platinum included, South Africa’s power outages, heavy rain, increased mining costs and declining platinum grades also dragged down production of the metal in 2025.

Platinum market surplus expected in 2026

For 2026, total platinum supply is set to reverse course and grow by 4 percent to 7.4 million ounces.

Although the WPIC has predicted a surplus of 20,000 ounces in 2026, that’s still way below the 1,083 surplus set in 2022 during COVID. Calling the surplus “tiny”, Sterck emphasized that this forecast is highly predicated on a number of factors, namely assumed profit-taking in ETFs, CME inventories and entrenched structural supply challenges.

“If you look at our numbers, we’re expecting 170,000 ounces of profit taking from ETFs in 2026, which is obviously going to be contingent in itself on a high platinum price. I would say that there is probably a bit of a risk associated with that outlook,” he said. “The second area where the surplus of 20,000 ounces is contingent on is on 150,000 ounces flowing out of CME exchange stock inventories and being made available to the market.”

Sterck explained that if these two assumed events do not materialize in 2026, then the platinum market will remain in “a quite substantial deficit of approaching 400,000 ounces.’

He also pointed out that higher platinum prices will not necessarily solve the issues that led to a shortage of above ground platinum stocks and a deep deficit for the past three years.

“The main thing we’re dealing with here is that these are deep level, underground mines for the most part, and they’re not mines that you can flex output from rapidly,” said Sterck.

“Realistically, mine supply is likely to be at or around current levels for the foreseeable future.”

Platinum price forecast for 2026

Moving into 2026, some of the most consequential trends that could shape platinum prices include a shifting landscape for investment demand, continued mine supply constraints, and an economic slowdown.

“Altogether, high demand and supply deficit with international logistics problems make these metal prices go up. Both platinum and palladium were peaking throughout this year, reaching around US$1,700 per ounce. It’s important to understand that the supply deficit problem will not be solved overnight,” said B2Broker’s Murillo.

“So in 2026, the same situation might persist, and the prices will remain elevated at US$1,550 to US$1,670. If more supply shocks happen, they could even move up to US$2,340, but less likely.’

If safe-haven investment demand for alternatives to gold continues alongside persistent supply challenges in platinum, XS.com’s Tran sees platinum maintaining the US$1,800 per ounce range for 2026 with room to grow.

“In the medium term, the scenario of extending the rally toward around US$2,000 per ounce remains feasible, especially if the Fed maintains a dovish trajectory, capital flows continue rotating into metals beyond gold, and supply from South Africa does not recover more strongly than expected,” said Tran.

The expert cautioned that with platinum trading at multi-year highs and the market’s vulnerability to global economic fluctuations there is just as much potential for technical pullbacks.