1. Trilogy Metals (TSX:TMQ)

Year-to-date gain: 602.37 percent
Market cap: C$2.42 billion
Share price: C$11.87

Trilogy Metals is a polymetallic exploration and development company working to advance its Upper Kobuk mineral projects in Northern Alaska, US, which it owns in a 50/50 joint venture with South32 (ASX:S32,OTC Pink:SHTLF).

Its most advanced asset is the Arctic copper, zinc, lead, gold and silver project, which is in the feasibility stage. In an updated feasibility study from February 2023, the company reported annual payable production volumes of 148.68 million pounds of copper, 172.6 million pounds of zinc, 25.75 million pounds of lead, 32,538 ounces of gold and 2.77 million ounces of silver.

After tax, the study pegged the net present value at US$1.11 billion, with an internal rate of return of 22.8 percent and a payback period of 3.1 years.

Trilogy’s other key asset is the Bornite copper-cobalt project located 25 kilometers southwest of its Arctic project. The site hosts widespread mineralization and has seen historic exploration dating back to the 1950s.

A preliminary economic assessment for Bornite, dated January 15, established an after-tax net present value of US$393.9 million, with an internal rate of return of 20 percent and a payback period of 4.4 years. The updated mineral resource included with the report estimates an inferred resource of 6.53 billion pounds of copper with an average grade of 1.42 percent from 208.9 million metric tons of ore.

Trilogy’s Upper Kobuk assets are among the mineral projects dependent on the approval and construction of the Ambler Access Road, a planned 211 kilometer industrial road through Alaska.

Trilogy’s share price saw substantial gains in October after the US Senate repealed a land management plan that prevented the construction of the access road due to environmental concerns, and the current US administration supported its construction.

Additionally, Trilogy reported on October 6 that it had entered into a binding letter of intent that would see the US Department of Defense (DoD) invest US$17.8 million in Trilogy in exchange for 8.22 million Trilogy shares, or 10 percent of the company. The DoD would also hold warrants for an additional 7.5 percent, exercisable only after the road is constructed.

The funds are earmarked for exploration and development of the Upper Kobuk projects.

According to the release, the DoD will work to facilitate financing for the road’s construction and collaborate with Trilogy to expedite mine permitting using the FAST-41 process.

Shares in Trilogy reached a year-to-date high of C$14.70 on October 14.

2. St. Augustine Gold and Copper (TSX:SAU)

Year-to-date gain: 393.75 percent
Market cap: C$404.32 million
Share price: C$0.395

St. Augustine Gold and Copper is a development company focused on its King-king copper-gold project in the Philippines’ Davao de Oro province. The project consists of 184 mining claims.

On May 30, St. Augustine entered into an agreement with the National Development Corporation (Nadecor) to acquire a 100 percent interest in Nadecor’s wholly owned subsidiary Kingking Milling, which holds the development rights to King-king.

Under the terms of the deal, Nadecor will receive C$9.02 million convertible into 185 million shares.

The project’s exploration and development permits are held by Kingking Mining, which remains a 40/40/20 joint venture between St. Augustine, Nadecor and Queensberry Mining and Development. The release also includes details of new ore sales and royalty agreements between Kingking Milling and Kingking Mining.

On June 18, St. Augustine completed a debt conversion with Queensberry Mining, converting C$1.67 million in debt owed to Queensbury into 25.31 million common shares in St. Augustine at C$0.066 per share.

A follow-up announcement from Queensberry Mining stated that the shares represent a 2.5 percent stake in St. Augustine, increasing Queensberry’s holdings in the company to 52 percent of the total issued and outstanding shares.

As for Q3, on July 31, the company released an updated feasibility study for the project. Based on a copper price of US$4.30 per pound and a gold price of US$2,150 per ounce, the project’s economics included an after-tax net present value of US$4.18 billion, with an internal rate of return of 34.2 percent and a payback period of 1.9 years.

The report estimates a 31 year mine life with average annual production of 96,411 metric tons of payable copper and 185,828 ounces of gold. The six phase development plan will see higher average production in the first five years at 129,000 metric tons of copper and 330,000 ounces of gold.

St. Augustine’s latest update came on October 8, when it reported that it is advancing the Kingking project to a definitive feasibility study based on the feasibility results. It expects the study to be completed by the fourth quarter of 2026.

Shares in St. Augustine Gold and Copper reached a year-to-date high of C$0.58 on July 28.

3. Northern Dynasty Minerals (TSX:NDM)

Year-to-date gain: 337.65 percent
Market cap: C$2.15 billion
Share price: C$3.72

Northern Dynasty Minerals is an exploration and development company focused on the Pebble project, a copper-molybdenum-gold-silver project located 200 miles southwest of Anchorage in the Bristol Bay region of Alaska.

Pebble, which the company says is “one of the greatest stores of mineral wealth ever discovered,” hosts a measured and indicated copper resource of 6.5 billion metric tons and an inferred copper resource of 4.5 billion metric tons.

The Pebble property’s measured and indicated resources for molybdenum, gold and silver total 1.26 million metric tons, 53.82 million ounces and 249.3 million ounces, respectively.

The project stalled in 2020 during the permitting phase following a US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) veto that suggested the proposed mine would damage the Bristol Bay watershed.

Early in 2024, the Supreme Court declined to hear the matter on procedural grounds, sending it back to the federal district court and the federal circuit of appeals before the Supreme Court would hear it.

Northern Dynasty spent the rest of 2024 advancing its case in Alaska’s state court. In March of that year, it announced the filing of actions to vacate the EPA’s veto.

In 2025, shares of Northern Dynasty began to surge following Trump’s March 20 executive order that called for expedited approvals for domestic mineral production and included copper as a strategically important mineral.

Since Trump became president, Northern Dynasty has been attempting to work with the EPA to vacate the veto on the project. On February 18, the company agreed to grant the EPA a requested 90 day extension to allow for review by the new leadership in the agency, and granted a further 30 day extension on May 14 and a 20 day extension on June 12.

Although the company had hoped to reach a settlement in early July, it ultimately was forced to file a motion for summary judgment on July 17 to have the EPA veto removed.

The most recent update came on October 8, when Northern Dynasty reported that it had filed a brief with the court and presented arguments as to why the veto should be removed. The company’s president and CEO stated in the release that he believes the company has a strong case.

Shares in Northern Dynasty reached a year-to-date high of C$3.89 on October 14.

4. Imperial Metals (TSX:III)

Year-to-date gain: 251.63 percent
Market cap: C$1.17 billion
Share price: C$6.47

Imperial Metals is a mine development and production company with operations in British Columbia, Canada.

It holds a 30 percent interest in the Red Chris mine in BC’s Golden Triangle, with the remainder owned by Newmont (TSX:NGT,NYSE:NEM,ASX:NEM). Imperial also fully owns the Mount Polley copper-gold mine, which reopened in June 2022, and the Huckleberry copper mine, which has been under care and maintenance since 2016.

Provincial approvals of a 4 meter raise of the embankment at its Mount Polley tailings storage facility has been the subject of an ongoing lawsuit this year after the Xatśūll First Nation applied for an interim injunction challenging them in April.

A June 30 update reported that the BC Supreme Court reserved judgment on the case following a four-day hearing.

The Supreme Court ultimately dismissed the Xatśūll First Nation’s application for the injunction and judicial review of the approvals on August 6.

Imperials’ most recent update on the case came on September 3, when the Xatśūll First Nation filed a notice of appeal to overturn the dismissal of the judicial reviews. However, they did not appeal the injunction decision, meaning the company can complete the raise and continue mining at Mount Polley.

In an exploration update at the mine on August 12, Imperial reported the discovery of copper mineralization in a 400 meter blind target step-out hole located 4 kilometers from the mill site. The hole showed significant visual native copper, with one intercept returning 0.7 percent copper over 7 meters and another returning a grade of 0.25 percent copper over 20 meters.

The company stated that the results were significant because the hole is 390 meters away from the nearest known mineralized zone and the hole is unique in the prominence of native copper, raising the possibility of other similar-style mineralization in the area.

On August 29, Imperial announced that it received approval for a permit amendment allowing the company to expand Mount Polley’s operations and extend its operating life, including pit development and expansion of storage areas within the existing mine site footprint.

Shares in Imperial reached a year-to-date high of C$6.75 on October 2.

5. Meridian Mining (TSX:MNO)

Year-to-date gain: 244 percent
Market cap: C$524.54 billion
Share price: C$1.29

Meridian Mining is an exploration and development company developing its flagship Cabaçal copper-gold project in Mato Grosso, Brazil. The project license covers a 50 square kilometer area and hosts an 11 kilometer volcanogenic massive sulfide corridor containing gold, copper and silver.

A prefeasibility study released March 10 demonstrates a post-tax base case net present value of US$984 million with an internal rate of return of 61 percent and a payback period of 17 months. The project has a predicted mine life of 10.6 years with total life of mine production of 169,647 metric tons of copper.

The included mineral resource estimate for Cabaçal shows a measured and indicated resource of 204,470 metric tons of contained copper from 51.43 million metric tons of ore with an average grade of 0.4 percent. It also hosts significant gold and silver resources.

Additionally, Meridian reported on May 8 that it has hired Ausenco Brazil as the lead engineer to complete a definitive feasibility study for Cabaçal, targeting the first half of 2026 for completion.

Meridian has been carrying out an extensive exploration program at the site as part of the study.

The company announced results from the final phase of the drill program on October 7, when it reported significant copper grades. It highlighted an interval of 1.4 percent copper equivalent over 27.5 meters, including an intersection of 6.1 percent copper equivalent over 6.4 meters.

The company stated that the drill program yielded robust grades of gold, copper and silver mineralization, which will contribute to the mineral resource and reserve upgrades included in the definitive feasibility study. It also reported exploration success at the Cigarra target.

Shares in Meridian reached a year-to-date high of C$1.30 on October 16.

FAQs for investing in copper

Silver price, July 1 to October 17, 2025.

Chart via Trading Economics.

Silver broke the US$40 mark on September 1, then continued on up, rising to US$42.69 on September 15.

By September 30, it was closing in on all-time highs, reaching US$46.66. As the fourth quarter began, the price continued to climb, reaching an all-time high of US$54.47 on October 17.

Silver’s industrial demand drivers

Silver’s price gains over the past few years have been driven partially by increasing demand from industrial segments, where the metal has various applications, including in the production of photovoltaics (PVs).

An April report from the Silver Institute notes that industrial demand for silver increased for the fourth year in a row in 2024, rising 4 percent and setting a record of 680.5 million ounces.

The rise was attributed mainly to the green economy, which includes PVs, and artificial intelligence (AI).

Although the institute isn’t forecasting gains for 2025, it’s still predicting that silver industrial demand will remain near record levels, at 677.4 million ounces, with 195.7 million ounces coming from PVs.

A key reason for the high demand for solar energy is that production costs have made it more competitive than coal, gas or wind. This has increased the attractiveness of PVs for use in data centers.

Speaking at the Metals Investor Forum in Vancouver, BC, at the end of September, Peter Krauth, editor of Silver Stock Investor and author of ‘The Great Silver Bull,’ discussed the staggering rise in demand for solar energy and noted that during the 2010s, deployment exceeded expectations by 200 percent.

“Data center power demand over the next four years is expected to grow 21 percent, and AI is expected to see a 33 percent annual growth in electricity demand over the next four years,” he said.

He explained that tech companies favor solar over wind three-to-one, and nuclear at a rate of five-to-one. That’s because solar is not only cheaper than other energy forms, but also faster to permit, as long as space is available.

While PVs remain a strong demand driver for silver, it’s not the only one.

“Silver, after oil, is the commodity with the single most applications worldwide,’ said Krauth.

‘So when you say silver is indispensable, it’s irreplaceable in some ways. It has so many applications that if silver were to disappear tomorrow, it would wreak havoc on a lot of industry,’ he continued.

“Silver’s main growth driver is industrial usage. Especially when it comes to electric cars and batteries, silver is nearly irreplaceable,” she said. However, she also noted risks coming from the US and its ability to influence the global market, suggesting that with high uncertainty, commodities can be unpredictable. Additionally, Khandoshko pointed to market saturation in the tech sector, suggesting tailwinds may not be what they once were.

“The technology market is on the verge of a breakthrough, but at the same time, it is close to saturation, and the potential for a sharp increase in demand is limited. As a result, I would say that it is not worth expecting rapid leaps from silver, although for now the metal is in plus,” she said.

Silver benefiting from investment demand

Although industrial components have grown in the past few years, they aren’t the only factor that drove silver during the third quarter. Investment demand also helped push it toward record highs.

In a July report, the Silver Institute states that as of June 30, 1.13 billion ounces of silver were held in exchange-traded products, 7 percent below the all-time high set in February 2021. It attributes the rise in silver investment to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty as more investors turn to silver as a safe-haven asset.

Additionally, many investors view silver as undervalued compared to gold.

Since 2000, the gold-silver ratio has averaged 69:1; however, in 2025, it has been significantly higher, reaching 104:1 in May. Although it has fallen, the ratio remains above the 25 year average, reaching 79:1 in October.

“If you take US$3,700 (per ounce) gold today, and you use the average going back to 2000, that puts you already at US$54. So we’re beyond that all-time high of silver potentially pretty easily just based on that ratio,” Krauth said.

He added that he expects the gold price to continue climbing, pushing up the potential for an even higher silver price if it approaches that 69:1 average.

Silver price forecast for 2025

As suggested by the Silver Institute, Krauth and Khandoshko, silver is supported not only by supply and demand fundamentals, but also by tailwinds on the investment side.

In his talk, Krauth suggested that US$95 isn’t out of the question for silver over the next 12 to 24 months. He also said that silver producers are likely to benefit from the metal’s increasing price.

“When money starts to flow into the silver stocks, the impact can be really massive,’ he said.

‘If you take the bottom essentially of the last year and a half since late February 2024, silver’s up 105 percent and silver stocks, juniors are up 183 percent so far,’ added Krauth. Although it is difficult to predict how long a cycle will last, Krauth looked to the past and suggested there could still be significant runway ahead.

Copper price, July 1 to October 17, 2025.

Chart via TradingEconomics.

At the start of September, copper experienced some upward momentum, but really took off in the middle of the month as supply fundamentals took over. By the end of September, prices were closing back in on US$5.

Since the end of the quarter, the copper market has continued to gain strength, with prices breaking through US$5 on October 3 and rising to US$5.11 on October 9.

US copper tariffs stoke price volatility

The big story to start the quarter was the Trump administration’s copper tariff announcement on July 8.

The news came after months of speculation following the government’s February launch of an investigation into how tariffs could be used to bolster national security under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act.

Copper market participants were caught off guard by the timing, as some had expected the tariffs to come later in the year, and at a lower rate than the announced 50 percent. Traders began importing copper into the US from abroad ahead of the implementation of the tariffs, and the increased volume drove prices for the metal to record highs by the end of the month; it also created a significant disparity between the COMEX and the London Metal Exchange (LME).

“The announcement of a 50 percent tariff on copper imports in early July created extreme volatility in the US copper market, triggering a surge in physical shipments into the country as buyers rushed to get ahead of the duty. This buying drove COMEX futures sharply higher and pushed the US premium over LME prices to an unprecedented 30 percent.’

White explained that during a copper short squeeze on the COMEX in 2024, copper premiums peaked at 8 percent; he also noted that the five year average for the COMEX-LME disparity is near parity at 0.5 percent.

Ultimately, copper tariffs were only applied to unrefined copper, as well as semi-finished and copper-intensive derivatives, such as pipe fittings, cables, connectors and electrical components.

Refined copper tariffs will be phased in at 15 percent in 2027, and 30 percent in 2028. The move essentially pulled the rug out from under traders, causing COMEX prices to plummet by nearly 25 percent.

White stated that with the tariff situation cleared up, copper prices once again reflected the underlying supply and demand fundamentals of low inventories and high demand resulting from the energy transition.

“These structural forces pushed copper prices internationally higher overall for the quarter, despite the mid-summer volatility. The tariff episode reinforced copper’s strategic importance and highlighted the fragility of global supply chains, factors that may strengthen the case for higher prices going forward,” he said.

Copper faces supply-side disruptions

According to the International Copper Study Group’s copper market forecast, released on October 7, refined copper is expected to record a 178,000 metric ton surplus in 2025, significantly lower than the 209,000 metric ton surplus predicted in April. However, the group expects a 150,000 metric ton deficit in 2026.

The reason for the group’s downward revision is supply disruptions at Ivanhoe Mines’ (TSX:IVN,OTCQX:IVPAF) Kamoa-Kakula operation in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and at Freeport-McMoRan’s (NYSE:FCX) Grasberg mine in Indonesia. The assets are two of the world’s largest copper mines.

Kamoa-Kakula was temporarily shut down in May following a seismic event at the mine. While some operations began to ramp up again in June, Ivanhoe has revised its midpoint guidance down to 395,000 metric tons for 2025 after initially expecting 550,000 metric tons; it has also withdrawn the 600,000 metric tons expected in 2026.

At Grasberg, a liquid material ingress in early September killed seven workers and forced the suspension of operations. In a release on September 24, Freeport said consolidated copper sales across its operations will decline by 4 percent during Q3, but was unable to provide estimates for the fourth quarter.

The Grasberg site encompasses several underground mines: the Grasberg block cave, the Deep Mill Level Zone (DMLZ) and Big Gossan. DMLZ and Big Gossan were not affected, and could restart production in the fourth quarter.

However, according to Freeport, a preliminary assessment indicates a delayed restart of operations at the Grasberg block cave, resulting in the deferral of significant production in the near term. A ramp up in this area is not anticipated to begin until the first half of 2026, with the mine potentially returning to full production in 2027.

“This single event has pushed 2025 mine disruptions to 6 percent of global supply, above the historical average of 5 percent, and turned a near-balanced market into a clear deficit,’ White said.

‘With inventories already at multi-year lows and scrap unable to fully bridge the gap, the supply side offers little cushion. This tightening dynamic suggests higher prices may be necessary to incentivize new projects.’

Copper price forecast for 2025

Although some headwinds remain, primarily stemming from a worsening trade standoff between the US and China, copper’s future is likely tied to its fundamental supply and demand dynamics.

With little new supply scheduled to come online in the near term, this should signal more support for pricing as demand continues to grow from the energy transition and key sectors, such as artificial intelligence and data centers.

“On the demand side, copper’s growth drivers remain firmly in place. Electrification, grid modernization, artificial intelligence and data center buildouts and defense spending continue accelerating, making copper less tied to broad GDP growth and more linked to strategic sectors. These trends, combined with a deepening supply deficit, reinforce the structural bull case for copper,” White explained. He also suggested that any further disruptions will only add tailwinds to the copper price, benefiting producers and investors alike.