Rare earth firms innovate to bypass tightening restrictions

Facing long waits, or even outright denials, for exports containing restricted heavy rare earths, companies have turned to redesigning magnet formulas to avoid them entirely.

Employees from several leading manufacturers told the Wall Street Journal that firms have refined production techniques, including grinding materials into extremely fine particles to improve heat resistance without relying on the regulated elements.

The result is a new class of magnets that can operate at temperatures around 300 degrees Fahrenheit, suitable for many appliances though not always for automotive and aerospace applications.

Western buyers are embracing the products despite concerns about performance, with traders describing the choice as one between imperfect magnets and no magnets at all.

Other companies have turned to entirely different strategies. Because magnets themselves require licenses but assembled components do not, Chinese producers are increasingly partnering with local suppliers to embed magnets into motors or other parts before exporting them.

The practice has grown as Beijing intensifies scrutiny on smuggling and as magnet makers appoint compliance officers to ensure shipments adhere to the law.

But regulators have also moved to close loopholes. After firms began substituting holmium for other restricted elements, China added holmium to its control list in October, though enforcement has been delayed for one year under the Trump–Xi agreement.

Industry executives warn that Beijing could tighten restrictions again, given its dominant role in rare earth processing and its subsequent use as a geopolitical leverage.

Gold price in Q4

The gold price began Q4 at US$3,865.10, but quickly shot to an all-time high of US$4,379.13 on October 17. The surge was fueled by a number of circumstances supportive of safe-haven demand and store of value.

First up was the deepening trade war between the US and China.

In response to US lawmakers demanding broader bans on equipment sales to Chinese chipmakers, President Xi Jinping’s government announced further rare earth element export restrictions. The action spurred Trump to respond by threatening 100 percent tariffs on Chinese goods and export controls on critical software.

Other forces behind gold’s impressive rally in the fourth quarter included the US government shutdown and expectations that the Fed would begin reducing interest rates. At the same time, central banks continued to be net buyers of gold amid increased gold exchange-traded funds (ETF) inflows.

Gold price, Q4 2025.

By October 27, the price of gold had fallen to its quarterly low of US$3,897.30. However, the yellow metal managed to rise once again, closing out the month above the US$4,000 level.

Gold took another run at its record high in the second week of November as the longest US government shutdown in history came to an end and labor market weakness in the US primed expectations of further Fed rate cuts in December. The precious metal reached US$4,242.50 on November 13 before falling back below US$4,100 the next day.

The long-delayed release of September US jobs data on November 20 also placed downward pressure on gold as the numbers were stronger than expected. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 119,000, more than double the 50,000 gain analysts had projected. The report reduced expectations of a Fed rate cut in December.

The price of gold fell as low as US$4,022 the next day. However, the last week of November saw gold on another upward trend as the likelihood of a December Fed rate cut increased, hurting the US dollar.

New York Fed President John Williams said continued weakness in the labor market makes the case for a December rate cut feasible, and Fed Governor Christopher Waller also mentioned a December cut would be appropriate.

While the US Department of Labor will not be releasing an October jobs report due to the government shutdown, a report from job placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas shows that US employers shed 153,074 jobs in October. That’s up 183 percent from September 2025 and 175 percent from October 2024.

The latest consumer confidence survey also hasn’t helped, especially since numbers have been down for 10 consecutive months, signaling the potential for a recession. “Consumer confidence tumbled in November to its lowest level since April after moving sideways for several months,” said Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board. “All five components of the overall index flagged or remained weak.”

On November 28, gold broke above the US$4,200 level again. By December 1, it had reached its highest level in six weeks, hitting US$4,263 before settling down to US$4,237 at the end of the trading day.

How did gold perform for the rest of the year?

Gold price in Q1

Gold gained 20 percent in Q1 and closed above US$3,000 for the first time ever on March 18. The precious metal’s strong performance during the period is linked to global uncertainty surrounding Trump’s second term.

Trade policy was at the center of those concerns. Soon after Trump’s inauguration, his administration applied tariffs to imports from Canada and Mexico, only to press pause two days later and delay implementation until March.

The seesaw between on-again, off-again tariff announcements continued throughout the quarter alongside rising tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, adding to market instability and bolstering gold’s safe-haven appeal.

This was highly evident in what the Word Gold Council (WGC) called “strong global inflows” into gold ETFs.

Gold price, Q1 2025.

‘This seems to have been driven by the global political stress and potential tariff impacts. The amounts involved have caused disruption in the real demand and promoted new buyers as well,’

Gold price in Q2

The gold price continued to set new record highs in the second quarter of 2025, breaking through the US$3,500 level briefly on April 21 before closing the quarter slightly lower at US$3,434.40.

Trump’s tariffs were once again the main theme influencing the metal’s gains through the quarter. On April 2, Trump declared “Liberation Day,” an executive order applying tariffs on a broad range of imports coming from most US trade partners. The subsequent global market meltdown caused US debt holders, such as Japan and Canada, to sell US treasuries, which led to higher yields on 10 year bonds. Investors in turn sought the safety of gold.

On the back of those factors, the WGC’s June ETF report shows that ETF flows in the first half of 2025 were the highest semiannual inflows since the first half of 2020.

Gold price, Q2 2025.

Gold price in Q3

Gold set another record during Q3, rising over 15 percent to a quarterly high of US$3,858.41 on September 30.

The substantial rally was attributed to declining yield curves, US monetary policy and the weakening dollar. Gold traditionally has had an inverse relationship to the dollar, a trend that has benefited the metal immensely this year.

In this vein, the 25 basis point rate cut from the Fed on September 17 was a major catalyst. Some analysts believe it’s a signal to investors that the economy may be on the verge of a stagflationary environment.

This is reflected in WGC’s reporting of record ETF inflows to the tune of US$26 billion for the third quarter, with North American markets accounting for US$16.1 billion.

Gold price, Q3 2025.

Investor takeaway

Safe-haven investment demand has been the key driver for gold in 2025.

Investors have sought refuge in precious metal throughout the year as geopolitical tensions, Trump-related trade turmoil and a worsening economic outlook have sparked volatility in the stock market.

In the first three quarters of the year, the WGC reported 1,556 metric tons of gold investment demand, representing US$161 billion in gold assets. That’s only 6 percent below the record reached in the first three quarters of 2020.

Central banks have continued to increase their physical holdings as a potential buffer against a global economic downturn. The most recent data on central bank gold buying from the WGC shows that they added 634 metric tons of gold to their coffers during the first three quarters, with more than one-third of those purchases occurring in Q3.

As the conditions for gold’s current year-long rally become further entrenched, investors can reasonably expect this year’s story to be next year’s story, but with even higher gold prices.

1. BHP (ASX:BHP,NYSE:BHP,LSE:BHP)

Copper production: 1.5 million metric tons

BHP is one of the world’s largest mining companies, and its global portfolio of assets includes significant copper mining operations in Chile, Australia and Peru.

According to the company’s quarterly operational review data, the mining giant’s attributable copper production totaled 1.5 million metric tons across the calendar year 2024.

Its most significant copper asset is the Escondida mine, the world’s largest copper mine. BHP holds a 57.5 percent stake in the Chilean operation, which produced 1.24 million metric tons of copper in 2024, of which 713,805 was attributable to BHP. Its other Chilean copper operation is its wholly owned Pampa Norte mine, which produced 313,600 metric tons of copper in 2024.

BHP also owns the Olympic Dam polymetallic mine, the largest mine in Australia. The South Australian mine hosts one of the world’s largest copper deposits as well as the largest uranium deposit. In 2023, BHP expanded its portfolio in the state with its acquisition of OZ Minerals and its Prominent Hill and Carrapateena copper operations.

In January, BHP announced its acquisition of Filo Mining and its Filo del Sol project located Argentina. As part of the announcement, BHP said it had formed a joint venture company with Lundin Mining Corporation (TSX:LUN,OTC Pink:LUNMF) to combine Filo del Sol with Lundin’s Josemaria project in the Vicuna mining district, with each company owning a 50 percent stake.

2. Codelco

Copper production: 1.44 million metric tons

The Chilean state-owned Codelco is the world’s third-largest producer with copper production of 1.44 million metric tons in 2024. According to its 2024 annual report, its copper output increased 1.2 percent from 1.42 million metric tons in 2023.

Its largest asset is the Chuquicamata mine located in Northern Chile, between 2017 and 2021 annual production was in the 700 million to 850 million pound range. However, lower grades in recent years have led to production falling below 600 million pounds. In 2024, Chuquicamata increased slightly to 637 million pounds.

The mine transitioned from an open pit to an underground mine beginning in 2019. In its operational report for the quarter ending September 30, the company stated that Phase 1 of its continuity infrastructure project had reached 85 percent completion. It added that feasibility studies were underway for potential expansion of the current mine level, as were prefeasibility studies assessing ‘the development of a potential deeper mine level.’

The company’s other significant Chilean mines include El Teniente, Quebrada Blanca and Andina.

3. Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX)

Copper production: 1.26 million metric tons

Freeport-McMoRan is consistently ranked among the world’s top copper producers, and its share of copper production from its mines totaled 1.26 million metric tons of copper in 2024. The company reported producing 4.21 billion pounds, or 1.9 million metric tons, of the red metal, calculated on a 100 percent basis for all operations except its Morenci joint venture.

The largest contributor to its output is the Grasberg copper-gold mine in Indonesia. The mine itself is a joint venture between Freeport and state-owned Indonesia Asahan Aluminum, with the entities holding interests of 48.76 percent and 51.24 percent respectively. According to MDO, copper output for the mine in 2024 totaled 1.8 billion pounds.

Grasberg has undergone a transition from an open pit to an underground block cave, and expansion work continues at the site. As of the close of 2024, the mine had 469 open drawbells.

In September, the main Grasberg Block Cave suffered an ingress of wet material that killed seven workers and forced the closure of the operation. While Freeport stated that unaffected portions of Grasberg would open by the end of 2025, the Grasberg Block Cave would see a phased restart beginning in the second quarter of 2026, and increasing through the end of the year and into 2027.

Additionally, Freeport holds a 55 percent stake in the Cerro Verde copper-molybdenum complex in Peru. The mine routinely produces between 800 million and 1 billion pounds of copper and is expected to be in operation until 2052.

Its largest US based operation is its 72 percent owned Morenci mine in Arizona, which produced 700 million pounds in 2024. It also owns the Safford and Sierrita mines in the same state.

4. Glencore (LSE:GLEN,OTC Pink:GLCNF)

Copper production: 951,600 metric tons

Mining major Glencore copper production dipped by 6 percent in 2024 to 951,600 metric tons from the 1.01 million metric tons produced in 2023. The company’s 2024 annual report attributed the decline to lower planned production at its Antapaccay and Collahuasi mines due to factors including lower grades, water constraints and geotechnical challenges.

Located along Chile’s coast, Collahuasi is the company’s largest operation, a 44/44/12 joint operation between Glencore, Anglo American (LSE:AAL,OTCQX:NGLOY) and Japan’s Mitsui & Co. (OTC Pink:MITSF,TSE:8031). The mine produced 558,600 metric tons of copper in 2024.

The partners are working to build a large-scale desalination plant designed to help overcome water shortage issues. In Glencore’s third-quarter production report, it indicated that water restrictions at Collahuasi have eased since the staged commissioning started, with further improvements through Q4. Once open, it will provide 1,050 liters of desalinated water per second to the mine via a 194 kilometer pipeline.

Other significant copper-producing assets in the company’s portfolio include Antamina in Peru, Mount Isa in Australia and the Katanga Complex in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

5. Southern Copper (NYSE:SCCO)

Copper production: 883,462 metric tons

A majority-owned, indirect subsidiary of Grupo Mexico (OTC Pink:GMBXF), Southern Copper recorded 883,462 metric tons of total copper production for 2024, a 6.9 percent increase over 2023. In the company’s 2024 results, the company attributed the increase to higher production across all operations, with a 10.7 percent increase from its Peruvian assets and a 4.3 percent increase from Mexican production.

The company operates major copper mines in Peru and Mexico and has exploration projects in Argentina, Chile, Ecuador, Mexico and Peru.

Its largest copper-producing asset is the Buenavista mine in Northern Mexico, which sits atop one of the world’s largest porphyry copper deposits. According to MDO, the site produces approximately 700 billion to 750 billion pounds of copper per year.

Its other copper operations include the Cuajone and Toquepala mines in Peru and the La Caridad mine in Mexico.

6. Anglo American (LSE:AAL,OTCQX:NGLOY)

Copper production: 772,700 metric tons

British miner Anglo American reported a 6.5 percent decrease in copper production to 772,700 metric tons from 826,200 metric tons in 2023.

The company attributed the decline to lower recovery and grades at the Collahuasi and Los Bronces operations in Chile, noting that the planned closure of the Los Bronces processing plant also impacted production. The company holds a 44 percent stake in Collahuasi and 50 percent in Los Bronces.

In addition to Collahuasi, the company also owns a 60 percent stake in the Quellaveco mine in Peru, with Mitsubishi owning the remaining 40 percent. The open pit mine started operating in 2022 and, according to MDO, produced 675 million pounds of copper in 2024.

It also owns a 50 percent stake in the El Soldado mine in Chile, which it operates in partnership with Mitsui, which holds a 30 percent stake, and Mitsubishi Materials (OTC Pink:MIMTF), which holds the remaining 20 percent. Data from MDO shows that the mine produced 48,200 metric tons of copper in 2024.

On September 9, Anglo American announced plans to combine with Canadian mining giant Teck Resources (TSX:TECK.A,TECK.B,NYSE:TECK) in a ‘merger of equals’ to form Anglo Teck, which would be headquartered in Canada. The merged company would focus on critical minerals and become a top-five global copper producer.

7. KGHM Polska Miedz (FWB:KGHA.F)

Copper production: 729,700 metric tons

Poland’s KGHM Polska Miedz has operations in Europe, North America and South America, and says that it controls over 40 million metric tons of copper ore resources worldwide. In 2024, KGHM produced 729,700 metric tons of copper, a slight increase from the 710,900 metric tons of copper produced in 2023.

According to MDO, KGHM’s largest operation is the Polkowice-Sieroszowice mine in Western Poland. The mine has been in operation since 1968 and produces approximately 430 million to 440 million pounds of copper annually.

The company’s Polish operations also include the Rudna mine, which produced 338 million pounds of copper last year, and the Lubin mine, which produced 156 million pounds.

Other options under the KGHM banner include the Robinson mine in Nevada, United States, and the 55 percent owned Sierra Gorda mine in Chile.

8. CMOC Group (OTC Pink:CMCLF,HKEX:3993)

Copper production: ~502,600 metric tons

CMOC Group is a new addition to the top 10 after its copper production jumped significantly in 2024, with its share of production from its joint venture copper-cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of the Congo totaling approximately 502,600 metric tons. On a 100 percent basis, the company reported annual copper production of 650,161 metric tons.

The majority of CMOC’s copper production came from its Tenke Fungurume copper-cobalt mine, an 80/20 joint venture with the state-owned mining firm Gecamines. According to MDO data, the mine has experienced significant growth over the past few years, ramping up from 400 million pounds of copper in 2020 to 618 million pounds in 2023. In 2024, Tenke Fungurume’s copper production soared to 992 million pounds, or 450,138 metric tons.

Its other DRC mine is Kisanfu, a 71/24/5 joint venture with Chinese battery manufacturer Contemporary Amperex Technology (SZSE:300750) and the DRC government. The mine produced 200,013 metric tons of copper cathode in 2024, up substantially from 114,000 in 2023.

9. Antofagasta (LSE:ANTO,OTC Pink:ANFGF)

Copper production: 448,800 metric tons

Antofagasta’s share of copper production from its four joint venture operations in Chile totaled 448,800 metric tons in 2024.

The company’s largest operation is its 60 percent owned Los Pelambres mine, a joint venture with Mitsubishi. According to MDO, Los Pelambres’ copper production totaled 320,000 metric tons in 2024, up from 300,000 the previous year.

Its Centinela mine is another significant producer, with 224,000 metric tons of copper mined in 2024. The company is constructing a second concentrator at Centinela that, once it comes online in 2027, should add 144,000 metric tons of copper production annually and extend Centinela’s mine life by 15 years to 2051.

The company’s other Chilean joint ventures are the Antucoya and Zaldivar mines.

10. Teck Resources (TSX:TECK.A,TECK.B,NYSE:TECK)

Copper production: 358,910 metric tons

Rounding out the top 10 is Canada’s Teck Resources, which increased consolidated copper production by 50 percent in 2024, reaching 446,000 metric tons. On an attributable basis, the copper company’s production totaled 358,910 metric tons in 2024.

Much of the gain came from the ramp-up of the Quebrada Blanca mine in Chile. The mine started production in 2023 and produced just 122 million pounds of copper that year. 2024 saw a significant advancement, with the mine producing 458 million pounds of the red metal.

Teck holds a 60 percent ownership stake in the mine, while Japan’s Sumitomo (OTC Pink:SSUMF,TSE:8053) controls a 30 percent stake and Chile’s state-run Codelco owns the final 10 percent.

Teck also owns the Highland Valley mine in British Columbia, Canada. The mine is one of the largest open pit mines in Canada and produced 226 million pounds of copper in 2024.

Other copper operations in the Teck portfolio include Antamina in Peru and Carmen de Andacollo in Chile.

On September 8, Teck announced a planned merger of equals with Anglo American to focus on critical minerals and copper production. The combined company is set to be called Anglo Teck and will be headquartered in Canada. The merger is expected to take 12 to 18 months to be completed.

Goldgroup Mining (TSXV:GGA, OTC:GGAZF) is a Canadian gold company advancing a portfolio of high-quality producing and development assets in Mexico. With 100 percent ownership of Cerro Prieto, Pinos and the newly acquired San Francisco mine, the company is positioned for disciplined, near-term production growth.

Goldgroup’s strategy is clear: optimize and expand production at its flagship Cerro Prieto mine, advance Pinos toward a production decision, and restart the large-scale San Francisco mine. Together, these projects target over 100,000 ounces of annual production, with additional upside from exploration, resource growth, and future acquisitions.

The company is led by an experienced team with deep expertise in developing and optimizing Mexican mines. Backed by strong financial support from the Calu Group and Luca Mining founders, Goldgroup benefits from a proven track record in value creation through mine development, operational turnarounds, and strategic M&A.

Company Highlights

• Two operating or near-term production gold assets in Mexico, 100-percent-owned and fully permitted.
• Cerro Prieto expansion completed, increasing from ~12,500 oz/year to 30,000+ oz/year during 2026 and beyond, including tailings re-processing.
• Its second asset, Pinos, is a fully permitted high-grade underground development project with historical resources and +90 percent metallurgical recoveries.
• San Francisco acquisition in progress, a past producer capable of ~40,000 oz/year with significant exploration upside.
• Aggressive M&A strategy aimed at fast-tracking Goldgroup into the mid-tier producer category with advanced due diligence nearing completion. .
• Backed by the Calu Group and the founders of Luca Mining, bringing extensive operational and financing expertise in Mexico.

This GoldGroup Mining profile is part of a paid investor education campaign.*

Click here to connect with GoldGroup Mining (TSXV:GGA) to receive an Investor Presentation

Target rate probabilities for December Fed meeting.

Chart via CME Group.

In addition to that, US President Donald Trump said on Sunday (November 30) that he has decided who the next Fed chair will be. While he didn’t give a name, people familiar with the news told Bloomberg that Kevin Hassett, director of the White House’s National Economic Council, is seen as the likely candidate.

Trump has frequently criticized current Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not lowering rates quickly enough, and Powell’s replacement is widely expected to be more in line with Trump’s views.

Speaking on CBS on Sunday, Hassett was relatively tight-lipped about the Fed chair position.

“I think that the American people could expect President Trump to pick somebody who’s going to help them have cheaper car loans and easier access to mortgages at lower rate,” he commented.

“That’s what we saw in the market response to the rumor about me.”

Silver price chart, November 30 to December 1, 2025.

Silver and its sister metal gold tend to fare better when rates are lower, meaning that December rate cut expectations coupled with the Hassett rumor have helped to stoke prices for the precious metals.

While silver is known for lagging behind gold before outperforming, it’s now ahead in terms of percentage gains — silver is up about 97 percent year-to-date, while gold has risen around 60 percent. The yellow metal broke back above US$4,200 per ounce on November 28 and stayed above that level on Monday, but remains below its all-time high.

In addition to rate-related factors, silver’s breakout this year has been driven by various elements.

As a precious metal, it’s influenced by many of the same factors as gold, but its October price jump, which took it past the US$50 level, was also driven by a lack of liquidity in the London market.

While that issue appears to have resolved, a new situation has recently emerged — Bloomberg reported on November 25 that Chinese silver stockpiles are now at their lowest level in a decade after huge shipments to London.

Tariff concerns and silver’s new status as a critical mineral in the US have also provided support in 2025.

The white metal’s industrial side also shouldn’t be forgotten — according to the Silver Institute, industrial demand for silver reached a record 680.5 million ounces in 2024, driven by usage in grid infrastructure, vehicle electrification and photovoltaics. Total silver demand was down 3 percent year-on-year in 2024, but still exceeded supply for the fourth year in a row, resulting in a deficit of 148.9 million ounces for the year.

Watch five experts share their thoughts on the outlook for silver.

Time will tell what’s next for silver, but some experts see it continuing to outperform gold in 2026.

‘The sure money is made in the gold sector, but the big money is made in the silver sector — that’s proven true over the last couple of precious metals cycles. I believe it will be true in this one as well,’ said Jay Martin of VRIC Media.